NFL QB market 2023 Top free agents trade targets projected landing spots after Derek Carr Geno Smith sign
NFL QB market 2023 Top free agents trade targets projected landing spots after Derek Carr Geno Smith sign
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Nothing moves the needle in the NFL landscape quite like the quarterback position. If you have an elite signal-caller, you're usually guaranteed a playoff bid, regardle s of most other i sues. If you don't have one, you're either working hard to elevate him, or working hard to replace him. With that in mind, what does the next NFL offseason have to offer at QB?Here's a complete early guide, with a look at the most QB-needy teams (and the resources they po se s to acquire help), top free agents, trade targets and draft prospects, as well as projected/proposed landing spots for the biggest names:Why: , 45, is retired, and 2021 second-rounder has yet to take an NFL snap.Projected cap space: ($-57.5M)Top draft pick: No. 19Projected 2023 QB: Gardner Minshew Why:, 37, is likely done -- perhaps with football entirely -- after a turnover-riddled debut behind a battered line, leaving them in exactly the same position they've been for years: looking to wash their hands of a veteran past his prime.Projected cap space:$11.9MTop draft pick:No. 4Projected 2023 QB: Will LevisWhy:Both and are virtual locks to depart after trading mercurial stretches as Washington's starter. Like the Colts, they've gone from one castoff to the next, and rookie entered Week 18 with no experience.Projected cap space:$15.7MTop draft pick:No. 16Projected 2023 QB: Andy Dalton Why: took a big leap forward under Mike McDaniel, but his short- and long-term availability is in question after suffering multiple concu sions. The only other QB under contract beyond 2022 is rookie .Projected cap space:($-16.7M)Top draft pick: No. 51Projected 2023 QB: Tua Tagovailoa (now that Brady retired)Why: , their stopgap succe sor for Matt Ryan, literally left the team after landing on injured reserve, and has no clear path back to a starting job. Rookie , meanwhile, has just a handful of starts under his belt. Projected cap space:$66.4MTop draft pick: No. 8Projected 2023 QB: Ryan TannehillWhy: Former first-rounder , while vastly improved Warrick Dunn Jersey under Brian Daboll, will be a free agent after New York previously declined to exercise his fifth-year option. The only other QB under contract is veteran backup .Projected cap space:$46.1MTop draft pick:No. 25Projected 2023 QB: Daniel Jones Why: Dancing between 2021 No. 2 overall pick and veteran fill-in , New York has lacked consistent, serviceable QB play all year, despite making a playoff bid. Wilson has already been benched multiple times.Projected cap space: $-1.7MTop draft pick:No. 13Projected 2023 QB: Aaron RodgersWhy: castoff took an underrated step forward for a surprise wild card contender, but approaching 30, he's paid like a borderline top-10 starter despite physical limitations. Detroit would be wise to explore longer-term upside. Projected cap space:$22.MTop draft picks:Nos. 6 and 18Projected 2023 QB: Jared GoffWhy: has played some of the best, most confident ball of his polarizing career to close 2022, but he's headed for free agency and has yet to produce a full year of reliable play. Like Indy, they've swung and mi s on too many stopgaps.Projected cap space:$-2.4MTop draft pick:No. 9Projected 2023 QB: Sam Darnold + Anthony Richardson Why: is just two years removed from arriving as the 15th overall pick, but 2022 was a big step backward in an erratic new setup -- sizable enough that Bill Belichick briefly flirted with rookie as a replacement.Projected cap space:$32.0MTop draft pick:No. 14Projected 2023 QB: Mac Jones + Taylor HeinickeWhy: Even before he was benched and effectively exiled from the building in favor of Josh McDaniels disciple , veteran , who was cut and now a free agent, was a logical candidate to be moved after nearly a decade of gutsy but unreliable production. Projected cap space:$39.1MTop draft pick:No. 7Projected 2023 QB: Jimmy GaroppoloWhy:Former MVP is headed for free agency after a prolonged public failure to strike a lucrative extension with team bra s. Baltimore controls what happens next, with the franchise tag at its disposal, but long-term uncertainty remains.Projected cap space:$22.5MTop draft picks:No. 22Projected 2023 QB: Lamar Jackson Why: Both Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston, backup-level vets who took turns under center this year, are headed for free agency, and a clear, reliable, long-term answer hasn't revealed itself at QB since Drew Brees' retirement after 2020.Projected cap space:($-25.2M)Top draft picks:No. 29Why: has been a revelation as succe sor, emerging as a more confident, decisive version of his ex-Jets self. Projected cap space:$23.1MTop draft picks:Nos. 5 and 20Why: Ever since losing embattled standout , first to a holdout/unofficial leave of absence and then via trade, they've been floating along with backup-level pa sers like , and .Projected cap space:$40.9MTop draft pick:Nos. 2 and 12Projected 2023 QB: Bryce YoungWhy:Aging and injured starter has a pricey contract that can be dumped after 2022, third-round rookie struggled in limited action this year, and journeyman reserve is their only other in-house arm.Projected cap space: $13.3MTop draft pick:No. 11Projected 2023 QB: Jacoby Bri settThe following QBs will become eligible for long-term contract extensions for the first time this offseason: () () ()Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)As perennial MVP candidates when healthy, Burrow and Herbert could conceivably approach $50M per year on new deals, making them among the highest-paid QBs in the game. Regardle s of whether they ink extensions ahead of the 2023 season, they're locks to remain in Cincinnati and Los Angeles, respectively; both teams can exercise fifth-year options that retain the QBs through at least 2024. As a second-round pick, Hurts does not have a fifth-year option, making him an even likelier candidate for an extension, as 2023 will be his contract year. It's po sible his per-year average could fall more in the $43-46M range, in line with current deals for and . Tagovailoa is the wild card, now facing serious medical concerns. BAL QB #8 CMP%62.3YDs2242TD17INT7YD/Att6.88 Jackson is one of the NFL's biggest difference-makers when healthy, often single-handedly guiding the Ravens' receiver-challenged offense, and as the open market approaches, that'll overshadow the fact he's now mi sed at least four games in back-to-back years, and is still hunting a deep playoff run. A tag-and-trade would be splashy, and an extension would probably be smart for both sides, but the most likely scenario may well be another "trial run" under the exclusive tag, which would prevent other teams from negotiating. This would give Jackson a one-year raise while asking him to prove he can stay on the field, hopefully with better weapons, in his age-26 season. NO QB #4 CMP%60.8YDs3522TD24INT14YD/Att7.02 After nine hard-fought but mediocre seasons with the Raiders, Carr is one veteran QB who will definitely play elsewhere in 2023, after being released per his request. NYG QB #8 CMP%67.2YDs3205TD15INT5YD/Att6.79 Few QBs have elevated their stock as quietly but impre sively as Jones, who's gone from turnover machine to literally one of the best ball-protecting signal-callers in the game under Brian Daboll. There are still questions about whether Jones can consistently win through the air, mostly because of New York's makeshift receiving corps, but they've le sened as his pairing with Daboll has progre sed. Injuries are another concern, but at 25, you could do a lot worse for a high-upside bet, especially considering Jones has also been a smooth scrambler and designed runner. The Giants may or may not be sold on him as the face of the franchise for the next half-decade, but he's done enough to warrant a modest extension as their guy to open 2023. SEA QB #7 CMP%70.2YDs4069TD29INT9YD/Att7.52 Like Jones, Smith has seen his value skyrocket thanks to an improbable ascent as a decision-maker. The former Jets flop and longtime backup was surprisingly far more efficient and explosive than his star predece sor, Ru sell Wilson, in 2022. Pre sured to deliver down the stretch for a team with a porous defense, his forced throws have increased, rendering him more good than great. He's also 32 with only one full season of pa sable production under his belt. Still, for Seattle, which may well prioritize defensive reinforcements and has now witne sed him grow in the system for four years, he's a logical short-term investment. LV QB #10 CMP%67.2YDs2437TD16INT4YD/Att7.91 Few QBs have had such a roller-coaster season. The spent all of last offseason broadcasting his departure, only to abruptly welcome him back as No. 2, then lean on his surprisingly explosive arm once Lance got hurt. Now, Garoppolo's in no man's land again, recovering from yet another injury of his own while rookie flashes veteran-level poise in his place. Having played just a single full season in his nine-year career, he can't be trusted as more than a temporary point guard, and even then, he's typically capped out as a top-15ish starter. When healthy, however, he's proven capable of controlling the ball for contenders, making him a viable insurance bet for Josh McDaniels, his former Patriots offensive coordinator, in Las Vegas. TEN QB #17 CMP%65.2YDs2536TD13INT6YD/Att7.8 Tannehill is a perfectly capable starter for Drew Dalman Jersey a team that doesn't nece sarily lean on his arm to win anyway, and he helped transform the Titans into what they are today. He's also struggled mightily in his last few playoff appearances, he's both banged up and particularly costly going into 2023, when he's due $36.6M. And Tenne see remains in the midst of organizational overhaul, with general manager Jon Robinson axed in-season. A teardown may well await, and if the team doesn't find a trade partner to absorb the remainder of his deal, he can be cut as a post-June 1 release to save up to $27M. A logical next step: Atlanta, where the Falcons could use a mentor/competition for Desmond Ridder, and ex-Titans coordinator Arthur Smith oversees a run-first approach. (): A trade would be spicy, but it feels far more likely that Rodgers runs it back in Green Bay or hangs it up while wearing green and yellow. If we're just gue sing, his personal best-case scenario is probably capping 2022's improbable Josh Harris Jersey playoff bid with a second Lombardi Trophy, then riding into the sunset on top. (Packers): If Rodgers retires, he's a safe bet to return as the new QB1 in Green Bay, especially after a short-lived but lively stint filling in for A-Rod this year. Even if Rodgers is back, however, he's still under contract through at least 2023, and po sibly 2024, if they use the fifth-year option. Pencil him in as a Packer.Matt Ryan (Colts): Barring another freak injury in San Francisco, where Kyle Shanahan offers a personal connection and needs Ryan to become the 49ers' next emergency fill-in, Ryan seems destined to hang up the cleats after getting battered and benched in Indy. His heyday with Atlanta is long in the rear view. (): He just got an extension last offseason, but if any GM would be willing to make a surprise deal that prioritizes the future, it might be Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who publicly questioned Cousins' ceiling a year ago. They'd actually save $17.5M by trading Cousins. The i sue is, they're not in a prime position to draft a premium succe sor.Jared Goff (Lions): Detroit would save anywhere from $20-25M by cutting or trading Goff despite his mostly promising 2022 campaign. But even if the Lions use a top pick on a QB, Dan Campbell probably values his leadership and experience enough to retain him as the placeholder atop the depth chart.Trey Lance / Brock Purdy (49ers): Both youngsters have flashed big-time ability and/or poise in small sample sizes, but can both stick around if the latter takes San Francisco to the biggest stage in the postseason? Lance is pretty much a total unknown going into his third season, but we hesitate to think they'd part with such a major investment, even if it somehow means sitting him behind Purdy to open 2023. CAR QB #9 All indications are that Young is the total package except for his smaller, slighter build. He's polished, poised, and smooth in everything he does. With the No. 1 pick, in dire need of a new face of the franchise, the Texans may prefer a more prototypically sized signal-caller, but it'll be hard for them to pa s up such a clean prospect at the most important position. HOU QB #7 Some would argue he's just as, if not more, likely to go No. 1 overall because he pairs more standard size (6-3, 218) with maybe the best precision pocket pa sing in the 2023 cla s. Regardle s, he feels like a virtual lock to go in the top five. Seattle picks at No. 3, and while the Seahawks could easily double-dip on defense in the first round, the luxury of owning two Day One picks could also convince them to find a longer-term alternative to Geno Smith, even if Smith returns as the rookie-year mentor. TEN QB #8 One of the biggest risers of the 2023 cla s, Levis is the quickest to draw Josh Allen comparisons, boasting not only plenty of bulk (6-3, 231) but a tantalizing combo of pa sing zip and scrambling toughne s. He is a bit older (24 in June) and le s polished, but the athletic traits alone should have a team like the Colts, who have cycled through one aging/injury-prone vet after another, drooling at the thought of a 10-year partnership, let alone in a winnable division like the AFC South. IND QB #5 The wild card of the top four QB prospects, Richardson is the biggest (6-4, 231) and arguably most explosive, doing some of his best damage on the ground, while lacking some of the refined pa sing ability of his peers. Patience may be key here, and a desperate team like Carolina may not have an abundance of it, but then again, if the Panthers also retain Sam Darnold or add a similar veteran placeholder under a new staff, they could be an ideal landing spot for the next Cam Newton-esque play-maker.These veteran QBs figure to be available after the first wave of big-name acquisitions:QBCurrent TeamProjected TeamNotesJacoby Bri settBrownsTitansMentor/competition for Malik WillisSam DarnoldPanthersPanthersNo. 1 before Anthony RichardsonTeddy BridgewaterDolphinsSaintsCompetition with mid-round rookieJarrett StidhamRaidersRaidersCompetition for Jimmy GaroppoloAndy DaltonSaintsCommandersCompetition with early-round rookieBaker MayfieldRamsRamsBackup for Matthew StaffordGardner MinshewEaglesBuccaneersCompetition for No. 1 jobTaylor HeinickeCommandersPatriotsBackup/competition for Mac JonesCarson WentzCommandersBearsBackup for Justin FieldsJameis WinstonSaintsBillsBackup for Josh AllenMarcus MariotaFalconsEaglesBackup for Jalen HurtsMike WhiteJetsJaguarsBackup for Trevor LawrenceCase KeenumBillsVikingsBackup for Kirk Cousins
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